Covid19 and America

This author has fielded so many queries and seen so much spin and misinformation out there regarding Covid19(COrona VIrus Disease 19), that it seems necessary to post something.

1. The sky is not falling and, even if it were, it wouldn't be Donald Trump's or the GOP's or the democrat's fault. This is a virus, it is not a political windfall and should not be treated like one by either side. This author hopes that any politician who acts as though it is should be soundly defeated in the next election.

2. This is a serious situation and yes, it is worse than the flu. But panicking helps no one and isn't really necessary.

3. Martial law is neither compatible with the founding philosophies or the Constitution of this nation and it isn't necessary - unless Americans turn out to be a good deal stupider and more selfish than has formerly been the case in our history.  (Yes, this author has been asked about this possibility more than once, so thought it worth addressing.)

Here is the good news/bad news of the situation.

The bad news:  There is a new corona type virus spreading across the globe. It is predicted to infect up to 70 % of the world's population in the next year. That means it is likely that 7 out of 10 people will get it because it is new and there is no "herd immunity".  There is also no vaccine and no amount of breast beating and/or innovation will create one that has been suitably tested for at least a year.

The good news: The virus does not seem to be severe in younger people or children.

The bad news: The virus is affecting older people and the mortality rate seems to be higher than the seasonal flus with which we are familiar. (Which are also caused, in large part by viruses in the corona virus family.) "Seems to be" because we do not and will not have reasonably correct numbers until this has run it's course in a nation where testing has been widespread and available from the start. So far, it appears that South Korea has the best numbers available.

The really good news: For most people the virus will be mild enough that they may not even know they have had it.

The really bad news: About 10-20% of those who get it will have a severe presentation. Severe enough to require hospitalization or other medical intervention.  And this is where the bad news is really bad news. This is where the threat posed by this virus arises. And this is the part that the talking heads on both sides of the political aisle seem to be ignoring in their reports.

The reason this is so bad is because of how quickly this is spreading and because it can be spread by asymptomatic people - like the seasonal flus that come through every year. This is where the math of it all comes in.

The Math of it all.
The USA has a population of about 320 million people.
If 70 % of those people get this over the next year that means about 224,000,000 will get it.  ( .70 x 320,000,000 = 224,000,000.  Please feel free to double and triple check the math because this author has made egregious mistakes with decimal points before.)
 If 224,000,000 get this over the next year that means that 10 - 20% or 22,400,000 - 44,800,000 will have severe presentations requiring hospitalization or other medical intervention.  (.2 x 224,000,000 = 44,800,000)

There are only about a million hospital beds total in the USA and most of those are already taken by other patients and/or are not designed to handle those who need to be quarantined.

This is the problem. If we get even the lower percentage of 22 million severe cases in one year, the hospitals will not be able to deal with that number and many, many more people will die than would otherwise be the case. Oh but China has stopped it, you may say. Yes they did. By taking draconian measures that would be shameful to implement against the personally responsible and self reliant population of a free nation.

So here is the deal. The GOAL of the quarantines, self isolating, closing of borders, travel restrictions and all the rest, is to slow this down so that the health care system isn't overwhelmed. 

What do we do? 
Pray. Pray for the health of your neighbors and your nation. Pray for the loss of those who are going to die from this and the loss of all the knowledge and experience they will take with them as they are likely to be our oldest people. Pray for their families and friends as they mourn those losses. Pray that we, as a nation, can find the common ground and sanity to be united by this challenge rather than divided.

Be responsible. Responsible people will isolate themselves as much as possible. What? It's going to kill you to avoid going to events for the next year? No, but it may very well save someone else if you choose to stay home. Be a real hero and stay away from people for a bit as you may. Work from home if you can. If you are an employer whose employees can work from home, see that they do.

 Homeschool or use an on-line schooling option. Use this time to re-connect with your children and get to know them better. You won't regret having had the time with them as life goes forward.

Be thoughtful of others. Be mindful of all those whose employment depends on people going out and about and do what you are able to help them get through this too. If your child takes lessons from a local musician, don't just cancel their lessons, Those people need to make a living too. Set up video lessons through the internet. Help your church set up a video sermon option. Brainstorm.

Shop responsibly. Responsible people don't hoard. They just buy a little extra each time they go to the store and set up a rotation system with the supplies that they have. It's a good idea for always, not just pandemics. And it leaves product on the shelves for those who are unable to have a store of those things for times like this.

Be kind and be generous. Kind and generous people, share what they have - like sharing all those n95 masks with the people who need them - specifically, health care workers. Doctors and nurses are our front line here, so leave those masks on the shelves for them when they need them- and they are very likely to need them. Or, if you have a store of them because you have prepped  or you're a construction worker or someone who uses them for non health care work - offer what you have to your local health care facilities as it becomes apparent that they have need of them. Don't risk the harmful things they are supposed to protect you from, but if you have extra - share them to where they will do the most good.

Check on your neighbors - especially the elderly ones. You don't have to go into their homes(and shouldn't risk spreading this to them by doing so) but you could wave or give them a call once a week or so. Also - not just for pandemics and most of us already do that, one hopes.

Work. If you have had it and recovered, go back to work after you are no longer shedding the virus. Keep the economy going and the supply chains as operational as possible.

Wash your hands, often and well. Keep your coughs covered and use common sense. Politicians aren't the solution - you and I are. Be kind, be generous, use common sense and most of all rise to the challenge this poses. People who possess the moral and ethical values along with the strength of character to be a free people do not need a government nanny to do the right thing.

"1 From whence come wars and fightings among you? come they not hence, even of your lusts that war in your members?
2 Ye lust, and have not: ye kill, and desire to have, and cannot obtain: ye fight and war, yet ye have not, because ye ask not.
3 Ye ask, and receive not, because ye ask amiss, that ye may consume it upon your lusts.
4 Ye adulterers and adulteresses, know ye not that the friendship of the world is enmity with God? whosoever therefore will be a friend of the world is the enemy of God.
5 Do ye think that the scripture saith in vain, The spirit that dwelleth in us lusteth to envy?
6 But he giveth more grace. Wherefore he saith, God resisteth the proud, but giveth grace unto the humble.
7 Submit yourselves therefore to God. Resist the devil, and he will flee from you.
8 Draw nigh to God, and he will draw nigh to you. Cleanse your hands, ye sinners; and purify your hearts, ye double minded.
9 Be afflicted, and mourn, and weep: let your laughter be turned to mourning, and your joy to heaviness.
10 Humble yourselves in the sight of the Lord, and he shall lift you up.
11 Speak not evil one of another, brethren. He that speaketh evil of his brother, and judgeth his brother, speaketh evil of the law, and judgeth the law: but if thou judge the law, thou art not a doer of the law, but a judge.
12 There is one lawgiver, who is able to save and to destroy: who art thou that judgest another?
13 Go to now, ye that say, To day or to morrow we will go into such a city, and continue there a year, and buy and sell, and get gain:
14 Whereas ye know not what shall be on the morrow. For what is your life? It is even a vapour, that appeareth for a little time, and then vanisheth away.
15 For that ye ought to say, If the Lord will, we shall live, and do this, or that.
16 But now ye rejoice in your boastings: all such rejoicing is evil.
17 Therefore to him that knoweth to do good, and doeth it not, to him it is sin." ~ Mark 4